Six months in the watch market: tariffs, tumbling exports and a quiet recovery

If you've been paying attention to the luxury watch market since last summer, you've probably noticed things got weird. Not "fun weird" like a new Swatch collab. More like "39% tariff on Swiss watches" weird.

We took a break from the blog. The market didn't take a break from being chaotic. Here's what happened while we were away, and why it matters if you're buying, selling, or just watching from the sidelines.

The tariff saga, condensed

Back in August, Trump's 39% tariff on Swiss watches kicked in. The number was chosen, according to reports, because it "rounded up nicely" from the trade deficit calculation. That's not a joke. That was the actual reasoning.

The industry panicked. Swiss exports to the US had already surged 149% in the months before the deadline as brands and dealers scrambled to front-load inventory. Then, once the tariff hit, everything stopped. Exports to the US cratered 56% in September alone.

Brands responded with price hikes. Omega went up 8%. Blancpain 10%. Rolex kept it modest at 3%, which still stung on a $10,000 Submariner. Grey market dealers said importing was "dead in the water" because margins couldn't absorb even half of the new duty.

The Swiss government negotiated through the fall. By December, tariffs were reduced to 15%. Not the 10% that would've preserved real stability, but enough to restart the flow. US-bound exports jumped 19.1% in December as brands rushed inventory back across the Atlantic.

The full-year numbers aren't pretty

The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry published its 2025 figures in January. Total exports came in at CHF 25.5 billion, down 1.7% from 2024 and 4.5% from the 2023 peak.

Some context: the industry had three consecutive record years from 2021 to 2023. So a 1.7% dip doesn't sound catastrophic on paper. But the details tell a different story.

Volume dropped 4.8% to 14.6 million units. That means the industry shipped fewer watches at higher prices per unit, which is a trend that's been building for years. The over-CHF-3,000 segment (export price, so roughly $8,000+ retail) declined 1.9%. Below CHF 500, the drop was 4.5%. The middle ground held steady.

Geographically, every top market was down. China is still soft. Japan weakened as the yen strengthened and Chinese tourist spending dried up. The US was a rollercoaster: way up before the tariff, way down during it, then way up again once rates dropped to 15%.

One thing worth noting: export figures measure shipments, not actual sales. Richemont's nine-month results showed 5% growth. LVMH's Watches and Jewelry division posted 3% organic growth. So the brands with deep pockets weathered this better than the numbers suggest. The smaller players probably didn't.

Pre-owned prices are rising again (sort of)

This is the headline a lot of people have been waiting for. After 13 straight quarters of decline, secondary market prices started climbing in Q3 2025. By year-end, prices across the WatchCharts index were up 4.9%.

Compare that to 2023 (down 10.7%) and 2024 (down 6.1%), and yes, it feels like the floor has been found.

But there's a catch. Patek Philippe and Rolex did most of the heavy lifting. Patek prices rose 12.1% for the year. Rolex was up 4.6%. Omega and Cartier posted smaller gains of 2.4% and 3.4%.

Everyone else? Prices dropped for 28 of the 35 brands that WatchCharts tracks. The group-owned brands got hit hardest: LVMH brands down 6.3%, Richemont down 5.3%, Swatch Group down 1.5%.

Q4 was more encouraging. Prices increased for 21 of 35 tracked brands for the first time in three years. Patek surged 7.6% in the quarter alone. Even the big groups posted small gains.

The wrinkle is value retention. Retail prices went up 7% on average during 2025. So even though secondary prices rose, the gap between what you paid and what you'd get on resale actually widened. The Big Three still trade above retail. Every other brand WatchCharts tracks now shows value retention worse than 30%.

The practical effect: buyers moved to the secondary market in larger numbers. IWC saw secondary transaction volume grow 17.8%. Tudor grew 21.8%. When new prices keep climbing, pre-owned starts looking like the smarter play.

What this means for European buyers

If you're shopping from Europe, the last six months actually worked in your favor.

The 15% US tariff means American prices are higher than they were a year ago. For European buyers, that price gap creates opportunity. An Omega Speedmaster still costs meaningfully less in the EU with a VAT refund than it does stateside.

The secondary market stabilization is good news too. If you bought during 2024's dip, your watch has probably recovered some value. If you're looking to sell, the window is better than it was twelve months ago, though still not as strong as the 2022 frenzy.

For anyone thinking about buying: pre-owned is worth serious consideration right now. The discounts on brands outside the Big Three are steep, and Q4 data suggests the broader market may be recovering. A pre-owned IWC Portugieser or a Tudor Black Bay at 30-40% below retail is hard to argue with.

Looking ahead

Watches and Wonders 2026 is two months away. The April 14-20 fair in Geneva will be the biggest yet, with over 200 brands participating. We'll have a full preview coming later this week.

Tariffs at 15% appear stable for now, but "stable" in this context means "nobody's changed them yet." The Swiss are still pushing for better terms.

The Chinese market remains the big unknown. If consumer confidence picks up there, the whole industry benefits. If it doesn't, expect more pressure on mid-range brands and another year of consolidation.

We're back, and we plan to stay. More coverage coming this week on Watches and Wonders, the DTC shift in Swiss watchmaking, and an updated guide to entry-level luxury picks for 2026.